El Niño - is there a Indian SideEffects?
El Niño - is there a Indian SideEffects?
El Niño and why India is fearing its inflationary effect this year
👋 Hi, this is Venkat and here with a free, full issue of the The The Quantified India Newsletter. In every issue, I cover topics in a simpler terms in areas related to india with data etc.
If you are new here feel free to read the older article .
El Niño - is it a Spanish cuisine? - Nope its a phenomenon
El Niño is a complex phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise to above-average levels for an extended period, leading to changes in atmospheric pressure and wind patterns across the globe.
These changes can result in significant impacts on weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, and even human health in regions across the world.
In India, El Niño has been known to cause droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events that can lead to significant economic and social impacts.
Do you know it took 300 years to explain this by the scientist of whats happening in their because In the 1600s, Peruvian fishermen noticed something odd. During certain periods, the sea water turned warmer and their catch of fish dwindled too since it occurred typically around Christmas time, people in the region called this phenomenon El Niño ‘the Christ child’.
The name "El Niño" comes from the Spanish word for "the boy child," a reference to the Christ child because El Niño often occurs around Christmas time.
The phenomenon is closely tied to the movement of warm ocean water from east to west along the equator, driven by prevailing winds.
This warm water is typically pushed toward Indonesia and Australia, leading to cooler water temperatures and upwelling of nutrient-rich water along the coast of South America. However, when the winds weaken or change direction, the warm water can begin to move back toward South America, leading to above-average temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
The effects of El Niño are not limited to the Pacific region, however. The changes in ocean temperature can also impact atmospheric pressure and wind patterns, which in turn can affect weather patterns and climate in regions across the world.
This includes India as well.
El Niño has been known to impact weather patterns and climate in India, leading to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. These impacts can have significant economic and social consequences, particularly for the agricultural sector.
lets first understand the El Nino Effects in India is last couple of decade.
Year 2018,2015,2013,2007,2005,1995,1987 - the Effect of El Nino was weak.
Year 2016,1998,1988,1982 - the Effect of El Nino was strong.
The most significant impact of El Niño on India is typically a decrease in monsoon rainfall. The monsoon season in India typically lasts from June to September and is responsible for the majority of the country's annual rainfall. When El Niño occurs, it can lead to changes in atmospheric pressure and wind patterns that can weaken or even reverse the monsoon winds, leading to decreased rainfall and drought conditions in many parts of the country.
Analysis:
You can see that during the strong El Nino Years there is a severe impact on rainfall
2015-2016: The strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 led to a severe drought, which impacted food grain production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, food grain production declined by around 2.8% compared to the previous year.
1997-1998: A strong El Niño event occurred in 1997-1998, which led to a severe drought in India with below-average rainfall during the monsoon season.
The impacts of El Niño on the monsoon season can vary depending on the strength and duration of the phenomenon. In some cases, El Niño can lead to a complete failure of the monsoon, leading to widespread drought conditions and crop failures. In other cases, the impacts may be less severe, with below-average rainfall leading to localized droughts and reduced crop yields.
Analysis:
During El Niño there is a deficit in food grain production most of the times with exception during 2018 where there is not much impact
The year 2003 there was a server deficit in food grain production when we had a moderate El Niño Effects.
Its obvious that with less rain we have a impact on food grain production as well. Since Indian agriculture system is mostly dependent on Monsoon rainfall.
Because as per FY21 estimates agriculture contributes to roughly 20% of India’s GDP. And various reports say that 40–60% of India’s cultivated land depends on the monsoons. So when the monsoon isn’t what it’s supposed to be, it can have huge ramifications.
Remember the kharif and rabi crop lessons from your school days?
Well, those are the two main crop seasons in India.
We sow kharif crops like rice, maize, and soybean during the first onset of the monsoon. And that makes them quite dependent on rainfall. Without adequate rain, the yields could be lower. And researchers who looked at data from 1966 to 2011 have indicated that El Niño greatly affects the final output.
In addition to impacts on the monsoon season, El Niño can also lead to other extreme weather events in India.
It’s not a great omen for India which is one of the world’s largest consumers of both rice and wheat.
Also it could put quite a bit of pressure on our electricity grid. Urban India could crank up their ACs/Coolers to beat the heat. And the signs of things to come are already here. In January, for instance, the Weather Channel reported that the demand for electricity peaked at 211 gigawatts. It’s already almost hit the all-time high we witnessed last summer. And it isn’t even summer yet. If El Niño emerges and heats up India even more, our electricity demand could shoot up by 20–30%. And we could be facing power shortages.
For example, the 2015-2016 El Niño event was associated with a severe heatwave in India that led to more than 2,500 deaths. El Niño can also lead to increased cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which can result in severe flooding and other impacts on coastal communities.
This all could add upto GDP drop and Inflations , resulting in further increase in interest rates to beat the inflations.
While recent weaker El Niño in 2018 had a less impact on GDP.But in year 2003,1998 when we faced a stronger impact , there was a significant impact in GDP as well.
Given the significant impacts that El Niño can have on weather patterns, agriculture, and other sectors of the Indian economy, it is important to take steps to mitigate its impacts. Some potential measures that could be taken include:
Early Warning Systems: Developing early warning systems that can predict the onset and severity of El Niño events can help government agencies, farmers, and other stakeholders prepare for the impacts of the phenomenon. This could include measures such as providing early forecasts of monsoon patterns, issuing advisories on crop selection and management, and preparing emergency response plans for droughts and floods.
In 2023, There is already intensified heatwaves ongoing in several part of India and metrological department predicting normal rainfall it will be wait and watch scenario.Climate-smart Agriculture: Encouraging the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices that can help farmers adapt to changing weather patterns and mitigate the impacts of El Niño. This could include measures such as crop diversification, conservation agriculture, and improved water management techniques.
Infrastructure Development: Investing in infrastructure such as irrigation systems, water storage facilities, and flood control measures that can help mitigate the impacts of El Niño on agriculture and other sectors of the economy.
Research and Development: Investing in research and development to better understand the impacts of El Niño on weather patterns, agriculture, and other sectors of the economy. This could include research into the development of drought-resistant crop varieties, improved weather forecasting models, and new technologies for water management.
Anyway, we’re not certain yet that 2023 will indeed be the year of El Niño. The Institute of Climate Change Studies (ICCD) says that it’ll be a drought-like year. But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that we’ll only have a clear picture by April.
How will it all pan out? Only time will tell till den..